Chinese plastic market supply is tight and still has rising space
发布时间：
2022-09-30
Buoyed by tight supply, strong crude oil and continued recovery of downstream demand, plastic futures prices continue to be strong, the recent high to 10945 yuan/ton. It is expected that in the short term plastic futures still have room to rise, but with Fushun Petrochemical production after late August, PE import volume growth and traders stock gradually ended, the correction market is expected.
Buoyed by tight supply, strong crude oil and continued recovery of downstream demand, plastic futures prices continue to be strong, the recent high to 10945 yuan/ton. It is expected that in the short term plastic futures still have room to rise, but with Fushun Petrochemical production after late August, PE import volume growth and traders stock gradually ended, the correction market is expected.
Demand growth is better than supply. As of June, the cumulative growth rate of agricultural film production is 16.63 percent. It is understood that 13 new film manufacturing enterprises have been added this year, and their profits have significantly recovered compared with 2012. The demand for plastic will continue to grow in the future. On the supply side, as of June, the cumulative growth rate of PE production was only 10.83 percent, and the production of new capacity continued to be delayed. The cumulative growth rate of PE imports was only 11.1%, and PE waste imports also decreased significantly compared with last year. On the whole, this year's domestic plastic supply and demand are tighter than last year, and the price should be higher than the same period last year.
Market supply tight situation continued. Affected by the production reduction of petrochemical enterprises, petrochemical inventories remain at a low level, resulting in tight supply in the market. As of July 31, although East China petrochemical inventory compared to the last week to recover, but North China petrochemical inventory continued to decline, the overall inventory level is still low. All of Fushun's plants are not expected to fully resume production until Aug. 20, which could ease the low petrochemical inventories.
Agricultural film enterprises just need to gradually pick up, traders continue to stock behavior. In August, the opening rate of greenhouse film and mulch device is in the recovery channel. The opening rate of functional film in North China has risen to around 60%, and the production of daylight film has also entered the peak season. Although enterprises resist the current high price of plastic, but because the raw material purchase is mainly rigid demand, it is expected that with the recovery of downstream opening rate, rigid demand will continue to increase. In addition, August is also an important stocking period for traders, and stocking behavior will also drive the price of plastic futures.
Near-term cost support remains. Although the recent crude oil price gains narrowed, but the possibility of maintaining a high is still relatively large, thus continue to support the plastic price. First, the U.S. and global refinery operating rates are high, strong demand for crude oil support. Second, as new pipelines are built in the US, inventories at Cushing, which are high, continue to fall to 2010 levels and are expected to continue their downward trend. Inventories in Europe and Japan are also at historically low levels for this time of year. Third, the second half of the year is a period of rapid growth of Opec spare capacity, coupled with the production reduction of major crude oil producers in the Middle East and North Africa, so although non-OPEC production is increasing, the supply pressure is not large.
keyword:
plastic
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